Admiralty Hong Kong on Oct. 4. (Alex Hotz/Coconuts Media)
There is a movement in our midst. In many ways, the so-called “Umbrella Revolution” has changed the face of Hong Kong, but with no solid concessions yet achieved, it’s enough to make you wonder: what really makes a “revolution”?
The last 10 years have seen a multitude of events cast under this term. In its simplest form, a revolution can be understood as a large group of people seeking to affect social change. The last decade has seen it all: bloodshed and hostility, liberation and freedom all around the world. But how do these popular struggles really compare to Hong Kong’s “Umbrella Movement”? Let’s take a look.
The Colour Revolutions
The early years of the millennium saw a series of protest movements dubbed “Colour Revolutions”. This broader term includes the Rose Revolution in Georgia in 2003, the Orange Revolution in Ukraine in 2004, the Tulip Revolution in Kyrgyzstan in 2005 and the Purple Revolution in 2005 in Iraq, among others.
Social Media: 4/10
With social media as we know it today in its infancy during the early years of the Colour Revolutions, it is hard to compare its use. In Ukraine, mobile phones and the internet provided effective ways to circumvent the widespread censorship of mainstream media channels. In the current global climate, the true revolutionary power of social media is much more apparent.
Global Reaction: 7/10
During the initial Colour Revolutions, the world was certainly listening. However, those actually taking action were arguably doing so in their own interests.
The United States, a self-proclaimed champion of democracy, provided financial support to Georgia and Ukraine in the hope that the two states would serve as catalysts in the region. And it is impossible to ignore the prior presence of US troops in Iraq, part and parcel of the “Coalition of the Willing”.
The other main player in this political game is Russia, which has long been suspected of attempted assassinations of Ukrainian officials.
Violence and Unrest: 4/10
The downfall of Saddam Hussein’s regime culminated in the deaths of multiple military and political officials. The Rose and Orange revolutions were both non-violent movements based on peaceful protests and civil disobedience campaigns. Students played a highly significant role in the Orange Revolution. Anybody else drawing parallels?
Outcome: 5/10
In many respects, intended outcomes were achieved; Saddam Hussein’s government was removed from power and Iraq established a democratic system; in Kyrgyzstan. an authoritarian regime was replaced via a free parliamentary election; and in Georgia, President Shevardnadze was forced to resign following a series of protests against corrupt and unfair elections.
Surely all of this warrants a victorious 10 out of 10? It certainly would if these effects were permanent. A second Rose Revolution began in 2004. Continued fighting in Iraq offers little promise of resolution, and an escalation of events in February in Ukraine only serves to demonstrate the short-lived nature of change.
The Arab Spring
Tahir Square, Egypt. (Wikimedia)
A surge of protest movements spreading through the Arab League from 2010 onwards saw millions from Tunisia, Jordan, Egypt, Iraq, Libya and Syria take to the streets.
Social Media: 10/10
There was large-scale censorship Facebook in both Egypt and Tunisia. Also commonly referred to as the Twitter Revolution, this was one of the first large scale uses of social media to mobilise people to revolt. Twitter allowed for the dissemination of information in real time between protesters, journalists and the world at large.
Global Reaction: 9/10
There was global condemnation of the widespread violence in Egypt, Syria and Libya. Foreign state involvement in these regions was rife – taking the form of military intervention, with states including the United States, France and United Kingdom quick to join, as well as a strong United Nations peacekeeping presence in Syria.
Violence and Unrest: 9/10
With over 25,000-recorded deaths in Libya alone, the violence was palpable. Coupled with this, the UN has speculated that the raging civil war in Syria has created more than three million refugees. These refugees may have escaped the danger in their home countries, but are by no means safe. Issues of overcrowding have led to poor sanitation and living standards in refugee camps in Jordan and Turkey.
Outcome: 5/10
Mubarak and Gaddafi were removed from power in Egypt and Libya. However, regional stability has yet to be established. The recent coining of the term “Arab Winter” warns that the situation is far from over.
The Red Shirt Revolution
Often understood as the reds versus the yellows, two opposing forces are at play in Thailand’s war of colour; those in favour of monarchical rule wear yellow shirts (the royal colour), while the red shirts support overthrown and exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship.
Social Media: 3/10
Lèse majesté laws forbids any public statement against the monarchical ruler, and Thailand is one of few remaining countries to enforce this law. This covers not only the internet and all social media within its operative, but also print media and even public action.
Global Reaction: 4/10
Images of the violence on Bangkok’s streets were widely circulated across the world. Many places, including Hong Kong, issued travel warnings for Thailand, warning their citizens to stay away. However, despite criticism of events by multiple foreign governments, there was little attempt at an intervention or mediation by individual states.
Violence and Unrest: 8/10
With a declaration of martial law and the full closure of airports in 2008, an assassination attempt on a democratic political leader in 2009 and full-scale military coup in 2006 and again this year, the country has had a tumultuous few years, and continued scuffles raise questions about future stability.
Outcome: 5/10
With continued outbreaks of violence this year, there have been further accusations of fraudulent elections and an unjust political system. There is no clear indication of where political control lies and where power will be held in the future.
The Umbrella Revolution
Finally, we come to our very own homegrown revolution. Hong Kong was vaguely promised universal suffrage by 2017 before the handover from Britain to China in 1997, but many were angered by China’s decision to continue vetting election candidates for the chief executive. In an attempt to secure these freedoms, students and Occupy Central activists took a stand by holding a sit-in on some of the city’s major roads.
Social Media: 8/10
Hong Kong has a comparatively free press and social media is not censored. However, there have been fears that the government would shut down cell networks, giving rise to massive numbers downloading offline app Firechat, which allows communication through a device’s wireless and Bluetooth systems. Twitter feeds exploded with news and information.
Global Reaction: 5/10
Foreign leaders seem to have adopted an “all bark and no bite” approach. Many world leaders want to promote freedom, peace and stability in Hong Kong, but is it worth risking a relationship with China and all that has to offer? Apparently not.
The United States’ involvement began with a statement from their Consulate General in Hong Kong declaring that the protests were China’s internal affairs. This was quickly followed by an assertion from the White House press secretary that the protesters’ freedom of speech and human rights should be protected.
Following this, Secretary of State John Kerry called for restraint with regard to the growing assertion of force upon protestors. Having been warned to stay out of China’s affairs, America and their words have had little effect.
Another popular question is: where are the British? While former Hong Kong Governor Chris Patten has been vocal about his disappointment in Hong Kong’s current government, London at large has been frustratingly quiet.
Violence and Unrest: 4/10
In the movement’s infancy, the majority of the roads surrounding Hong Kong’s central business district were shut, and Admiralty became the beating heart of the protests. Schools and other public services were brought to a close for several days. Civil disobedience took on an entirely new meaning, with a very civil beginning: widespread recycling campaigns were established, study desks set in place for students, and resources including food, water and toiletries were made widely available.
Whilst comparatively restrained, the police have been severely criticised for certain heavy-handed incidents, including their use tear gas on Sept. 28 and abundant use of pepper spray throughout. There was of course the alleged beating of Civic Party member Ken Tsang, and journalists have accused anti-Occupy protesters of physical violence and the police of an unequal approach to the different sides of the movement.
Outcome: ?
For all we know, the Umbrella Movement is just getting started. However, what we can state is that the result is dependent on several factors: real negotiations between student leaders and the government, a fair and equal police response, and a sustained focus on the realisation of democratic aims rather than a naming and shaming game.
At the time of writing, the Umbrella Movement is set to go down in history as one of the most peaceful uprisings in recent decades, and that is certainly a reputation worth protecting.
Reader Interactions